Navigating climate crises in the Great Barrier Reef     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

A dramatic escalation of extreme climate events is challenging the capacity of environmental governance regimes to sustain and improve ecosystem outcomes. It has been argued that actors within adaptive governance regimes can help to steer environmental systems toward sustainability in times of crisis. Yet there is little empirical evidence of how acute climate crises are navigated by actors operating within adaptive governance regimes, and the factors that influence their responses. Here, we qualitatively assessed the actions key governance actors took in response to back-to-back mass coral bleaching – an extreme climate event – of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017, and explored their perceptions of barriers and catalysts to these responses. This research was, in part, a product of collaboration and knowledge co-production with Great Barrier Reef governance actors aimed at improving responses to climate crises in the region. We found five major categories of activity that actors engaged with in the wake of recurrent mass coral bleaching: assessing the scale and extent of bleaching, sharing information, communicating bleaching to the public, building local resilience, and addressing global threats. These actions were both catalyzed and hindered by a range of factors that fall within different domains of adaptive capacity; such as assets, social organization, and agency. We discuss the implications of our findings as they relate to existing research on adaptive capacity and adaptive governance. We conclude by coalescing insights from our interviews and a participant engagement process to highlight four key ways in which the ability of governance actors, and the Great Barrier Reef governance regime more broadly, can be better prepared for, and more effectively respond to extreme climate events. Our research provides empirical insight into how crises are experienced by governance actors in a large-scale environmental system, potentially providing lessons for similar systems across the globe.  相似文献   

Can we learn from the past? Towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.  相似文献   

Integrated multi-scalar analysis of vulnerability to environmental hazards: Assessing extreme flooding in western Amazonia     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Environmental change is significantly altering hydrological systems worldwide, with substantial impacts for the people who live on floodplains and depend on rivers for their livelihoods and lifeways. Amazonia is a region significantly affected by these changes, particularly more severe flooding. This paper proposes a multi-scalar approach to vulnerability, applying it empirically to the analysis of household vulnerability to the 2011 flood—the second largest flood event along the Ucayali River in 30 years—in terms of exposure, impacts, and responses. Locally relevant indicators for assets, social identity, and social networks at the community and household levels are used to examine their role in shaping flood vulnerability, the interplay of community-level and household-level factors, and differential vulnerability across exposure, impacts, and responses to the same hazard event. We find that the most common impacts of severe flooding in rural Amazonia are on agriculture and that fishing is the dominant response strategy. This study suggests that covariate shocks, like floods, can have distinct idiosyncratic impacts and responses among households. We demonstrate that more integrated approaches to vulnerability analysis offer potential for better understanding differential vulnerabilities within populations as well as for drawing comparisons across hazard events and different settings.  相似文献   

Environmental regulation and innovation: Evidence from China     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

The relevance of analyzing effects of environmental regulation on innovation cannot be overemphasized. In this paper, we first develop a theoretical model to predict how command-and-control environmental regulation affects innovation, and then we derive its channels. Using the difference-in-difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive dataset at city-industry-year level of manufacturing sectors in China, we found that the more stringent environmental regulations that are faced by cities, measured by the reduction targets of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) during the eleventh Five-Year Plan, are negatively associated with innovation. Thus, the evidence contradicts the Porter Hypothesis. On average, a one standard deviation increase in the reduction targets of COD (SO₂) is associated with a 0.023 (0.016) standard deviation decrease in the innovation index. We controlled carefully for various potential confounders, and the results were supported by robustness and falsification checks. There exists an evident heterogeneity effect across regions and industries with different pollution intensities. The channel analysis shows that stricter environmental regulation also accounts for a sharp decline in labor demand, firm entry, and inbound foreign direct investment. Our findings are also robust to alternative measures for innovation and environmental regulation.  相似文献   

100 global bright spots of green growth: Co-occurrence of nighttime light gain and forest gain, 1990–2015     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Economic growth commonly occurs at the expense of environmental quality, but there are exceptions. Here we use satellite data to identify places where exceptional economic growth and exceptional environmental improvement co-occurred between 1990 and 2015. We term as “bright spots of green growth” those spatial clusters with the most cells above the 95th percentile within their world region in both economic growth (as proxied by increase in nighttime lights) and one aspect of environmental improvement (forest area). Because the locations of bright spots are sensitive to methodological choices, we applied two different approaches to identifying bright spots. The two approaches differed in their choice of nighttime lights data (DSMP-OLS in Approach A vs. DSMP-VIIRS composite in Approach B); choice of forest area data (forest cover vs. forest land-use); time period (2000–2010 vs. 1990–2015); and clustering technique (visual inspection vs. HDBSCAN algorithm). We identified the top five bright spots in each of ten world regions using each of two approaches, for a total of 100 global bright spots of green growth. We then tested the extent to which the attributes of bright spots were consistent with four non-mutually exclusive theories of green growth. Of the bright spots we identified, around two-thirds (65% using Approach A; 71% using Approach B) had significantly higher-than-regional-average growth in the share of labor employed in services, consistent with sectoral shift and “tertiarization.” Fewer than half (38%; 46%) had significantly higher growth in income, consistent with the “Environmental Kuznets Curve” theory. Some (54%; 29%) had significantly higher growth in timber plantation area, consistent with “eco-industry”-driven rural development. Few (0%; 10%) had significantly higher growth in protected area coverage, consistent with public policy-induced forest conservation. Our findings suggest sectoral shift toward services, rather than rising income per se, may be a promising pathway for other regions seeking to combine economic growth and environmental improvement.  相似文献   

中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究     

邢有凯  刘峥延  毛显强  高玉冰  何峰  余红 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(4):379-387

目前,交通行业已成为中国局地大气污染物和温室气体的重要排放来源之一,而且随着交通运输规模的不断扩大,与工业和生活排放相比,交通排放贡献占比呈相对增加趋势。文中构建了“CGE-CIMS联合模型”,对中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的局地大气污染物和CO₂协同控制效应进行量化评估。结果显示,与BAU情景相比,环境税、碳税、成品油消费税以及政策组合情景均促进了交通行业的电力消费替代汽油、柴油等石油制品,即使考虑政策实施后电力消费增加导致的间接排放,各情景下综合大气污染物协同减排量（ICER）仍为正值,即各项环境经济政策均具有较好的协同控制局地大气污染物和CO₂的效果。本文最后提出了包括聚焦高排放交通工具,以补贴低碳交通方式配合绿色税制改革,以及电力行业低碳发展等交通行业实施环境经济政策的配套措施建议。  相似文献   

温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张滨  吕洁华 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):84-94

基于2001-2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。  相似文献   

黄河口清水沟河道的冲淤过程与模拟          下载免费PDF全文

郑珊  吴保生  周云金  王开荣  韩沙沙 《水科学进展》2018,29(3):322-330

为揭示黄河口清水沟河道长时段的冲淤演变规律并建立其冲淤计算方法,分析了清水沟1976—2015年的时空冲淤演变过程,采用河床演变的滞后响应模型,考虑河口来水来沙及河道延伸与蚀退的影响,建立了清水沟累计冲淤量的计算方法。结果表明:1976—1980年改道初期清水沟改道点上游先冲后淤,改道点下游淤滩塑槽,淤积量随着下游河道展宽而增加,1980年后改道点上、下游河道冲淤过程趋于一致;受水沙条件等因素影响,1980—1986年清水沟主槽冲刷展宽,之后主槽淤积萎缩;1996年清八改汊和2002年小浪底水库"调水调沙"原型试验以来,河道转淤为冲,2002年后河道冲刷速率随时间指数衰减;河床演变的滞后响应模型可计算清水沟长时段的冲淤过程,该方法可为预测未来清水沟冲淤演变趋势提供科学参考。  相似文献   

中国西部寒区流域冰川水文调节功能研究     

贺青山  杨建平  陈虹举  王彦霞  唐凡  冀钦  葛秋伶 《冰川冻土》2021,43(5):1512-1522

冰川作为固体水库以“削峰填谷”的形式显著调节径流丰枯变化,冰川的水文调节功能对于中国西北干旱区至关重要。使用现有VIC-CAS模型模拟得到中国西部寒区2014—2100年径流预估数据,从趋势和波动变化相结合的视角,基于径流变差系数法,构建了冰川水文调节指数（Glacier_R）,分析了9个寒区流域冰川径流变化的稳定性,详细剖析了历史时期（1971—2010年）和未来到21世纪末这些流域冰川水文调节功能的强弱变化。结果表明：历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,除长江流域外,青藏高原其余流域的冰川径流减小时间节点为2020s,西北内陆河流域则为2010s。历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下至21世纪末,尽管西部寒区大部分流域的冰川径流呈减少趋势,但波动幅度减小或无明显变化,冰川径流稳定性增强或无变化。总体上,西北内陆河流域的冰川水文调节功能较高,青藏高原流域的冰川水文调节功能较低。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,至21世纪末,西部寒区各流域冰川水文调节功能均呈现减弱趋势,西北内陆河流域减弱更加显著,如RCP4.5情景下,木扎提河冰川水文调节功能降幅达25.4%,而青藏高原各流域的冰川水文调节功能一直处于较低水平。从年代际变化来看,1970s—2010s是寒区流域冰川水文调节功能较强的时期,1980s和2000s两个时段冰川水文调节功能尤强;RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,未来到21世纪末,冰川调节功能明显减弱。减弱的时间节点不同,最早为1970s,最晚为2020s。  相似文献   

Satellite monitoring of urbanization and environmental impacts—A comparison of Stockholm and Shanghai     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

This study investigates urbanization and its potential environmental consequences in Shanghai and Stockholm metropolitan areas over two decades. Changes in land use/land cover are estimated from support vector machine classifications of Landsat mosaics with grey-level co-occurrence matrix features. Landscape metrics are used to investigate changes in landscape composition and configuration and to draw preliminary conclusions about environmental impacts. Speed and magnitude of urbanization is calculated by urbanization indices and the resulting impacts on the environment are quantified by ecosystem services. Growth of urban areas and urban green spaces occurred at the expense of cropland in both regions. Alongside a decrease in natural land cover, urban areas increased by approximately 120% in Shanghai, nearly ten times as much as in Stockholm, where the most significant land cover change was a 12% urban expansion that mostly replaced agricultural areas. From the landscape metrics results, it appears that fragmentation in both study regions occurred mainly due to the growth of high density built-up areas in previously more natural/agricultural environments, while the expansion of low density built-up areas was for the most part in conjunction with pre-existing patches. Urban growth resulted in ecosystem service value losses of approximately 445 million US dollars in Shanghai, mostly due to the decrease in natural coastal wetlands while in Stockholm the value of ecosystem services changed very little. Total urban growth in Shanghai was 1768 km² and 100 km² in Stockholm. The developed methodology is considered a straight-forward low-cost globally applicable approach to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate urban growth patterns that could help to address spatial, economic and ecological questions in urban and regional planning.  相似文献